It might sound cliche, however each NBA recreation issues for one thing at this stage of the season. For the Raptors and Warmth tonight, a win could be large for both workforce’s determined pursuit to get out of the play-in event and into the safer six-seed. We now have all the percentages, traits, evaluation, and greatest bets to get you able to wager on this pivotal Japanese Convention tilt.
What a distinction a yr makes! Round this time final season, the 53-29 Warmth earned the No. 1 seed within the East whereas the 48-34 Raptors completed the common season within the fifth spot. Now Miami is 40-35 and staring down the very actual risk that it’s going to play the NBA’s model of a wild card recreation to get into the dance. With the information early this afternoon that Jimmy Butler is “questionable” to play due to a neck damage, the collective anxiousness of Warmth Nation shall be excessive. Brooklyn simply leap-frogged Erik Spoelstra’s workforce for the six-seed, nearly tied with the Warmth however proudly owning the regular-season tiebreaker. All-Star middle Bam Adebayo and reigning Sixth Man of the 12 months Tyler Herro might need to step up large time, together with former Raptor Kyle Lowry.
As for the 37-38 Raps, they might love to maneuver as much as No. 8 within the East, however Atlanta at the moment owns that seed and a tiebreaker over Toronto. The onus shall be on Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam to win large video games like tonight’s in the event that they need to safely make the playoffs. Because it at the moment stands, Toronto must win two play-in video games, considered one of which might very effectively be in opposition to Miami.
Bought all that? Don’t be concerned — it should get extra sophisticated by subsequent week. All however one workforce within the NBA has fewer than eight video games remaining, which suggests the tight-as-ever playoff race might go in dozens of various instructions between now and the beginning of the play-in tourney on April 11.
However proper now, all we care about is the Raptors vs. Warmth. Can Nick Nurse’s squad maintain court docket at Scotiabank Enviornment, or will Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and firm play Tuesday-night spoilers in Toronto? Let’s dive into the percentages and make our greatest bets.
Raptors vs. Warmth odds, picks, predictions
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Unfold: Warmth +4.5 (-115) | Raptors -4.5 (-105)
Whole: Over 219.5 (-110) | Beneath 219.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Warmth +150 | Raptors -185
Miami initially bought the -3.5 nod because the workforce with the higher file, higher coach, and higher total depth, however then Jimmy Butler was declared “questionable” for the competition at 1:30 ET this afternoon, swinging the unfold all the best way from Toronto +3.5 to -4.5. Oddsmakers clearly worth the significance of Jimmy Butler to this Miami workforce.
For us, this simply reinforces our preliminary betting notion. My narrative even with Butler on the ground was going to be “how can we belief backing the Warmth?” They’re an NBA-worst 27-45-3 in opposition to the unfold this season, 14-20-1 ATS on the highway, and 7-11-1 ATS as an away favourite. Miami’s 14-21 highway file sits amongst the six worst within the Japanese Convention.
Toronto has struggled much more on the highway, however the Raptors do have a 25-14 residence file. Nurse’s squad has additionally received 5 of its previous seven video games whereas going 4-1-2 ATS throughout that span.
Each of those squads wrestle to place the ball within the basket, capturing simply 45.7 % from the sphere (tied for fourth worst within the NBA). That explains the comparatively low over/below of 219.5, a quantity we expect yields loads of worth going into the Scotiabank tilt.
The OVER has hit in six of Miami’s previous eight video games, whereas Raptors video games have maintained OVER information of 7-4-1 for the reason that starting of March. The typical complete of Miami’s previous seven video games during which Butler was sidelined is 223.7. Miami has gone 8-7 with out its famous person on the court docket, however solely three of these Ws have been in opposition to playoff groups.
In the event you simply shortly look at every workforce’s numbers on the season, you will note Miami averages and permits 109 factors (and alter) per recreation and Toronto scores round 113 whereas surrendering 111. However Miami is scoring 116 factors per recreation for the reason that All-Star break and a wholesome 116.8 in March. That is six extra ppg than the Warmth averaged in February and a whopping 12 extra ppg than they scored in January! Toronto, in the meantime, has averaged 111.8 ppg in March, nearly in step with its median seasonal numbers.
The preliminary thought when this recreation pops up is that Miami will stifle a top-heavy Toronto lineup with protection and physicality, however the Warmth have not precisely been enforcers on the highway, particularly when Butler is out or questionable. The Raps have additionally been loads harder on the inside since Jakob Poeltl got here again residence through a deadline take care of San Antonio. For now, I will be doing a mini-teaser with Toronto -0.5 and the OVER of 215.5, however I might comfortably wager Toronto -4.5 the second I see something about Butler being confirmed out.
Finest Wager: Mini-teaser: Raptors -0.5, OVER 215.5 (-110)
Raptors vs. Warmth greatest participant prop wager: OG Anunoby OVER 2.5 steals + blocks (+125)
I all the time get sucked into these steals + blocks props after I see plus odds, however how can we not like this one? Anunoby is without doubt one of the greatest perimeter defenders within the NBA, and Miami will get sloppy with Butler banged up or on the sidelines. Anunoby had a steal and three blocks in Toronto’s final recreation in opposition to the Wizards, and he has logged three-plus “shares” in two of the previous three video games and 5 of the previous 9. We’ll take these odds and snicker all the best way to Scotiabank when OG smashes the OVER for us.