Sultan Al Jaber, chief government of the UAE’s Abu Dhabi Nationwide Oil Firm (ADNOC) and president of this yr’s COP28 local weather summit gestures throughout an interview as a part of the seventh Ministerial on Local weather Motion (MoCA) in Brussels on July 13, 2023.
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UAE oil big ADNOC — run by the president of the COP28 local weather convention — is anticipated to spend greater than $1 billion each month this decade on fossil fuels, in line with new evaluation by worldwide NGO World Witness.
That is almost seven occasions greater than its dedication to decarbonization tasks over the identical timeframe, the analysis says.
ADNOC, which not too long ago turned the primary amongst its friends to carry ahead its net-zero ambition to 2045, disputes World Witness’ evaluation and says the assumptions made are inaccurate.
It comes forward of the COP28 local weather summit, with Dubai set to host the U.N.’s annual convention from Nov. 30 by way of to Dec. 12. Seen as some of the important local weather conferences since 2015’s landmark Paris Settlement, COP28 will see international leaders collect to debate methods to progress within the combat in opposition to the local weather disaster.
The particular person overseeing the talks, Sultan al-Jaber, is chief government of ADNOC (the Abu Dhabi Nationwide Oil Firm) — one of many world’s largest oil and gasoline companies. His place as each COP28 president and ADNOC CEO brought on dismay amongst civil society teams and U.S. and EU lawmakers, though a number of authorities ministers have since defended his appointment.
World Witness’ evaluation, offered completely to CNBC, discovered that ADNOC is planning to spend a median of $1.14 billion a month on oil and gasoline manufacturing alone between now and 2030 — the identical yr through which the U.N. says the world should reduce emissions by 45% to keep away from international disaster.
It signifies that ADNOC is forecast to spend almost seven occasions extra on fossil fuels by way of to 2030 than it does on “low-carbon resolution” tasks.
By 2050, the yr through which the U.N. says the complete world financial system should obtain net-zero emissions, ADNOC is projected to have invested $387 billion in oil and gasoline. The burning of fossil fuels is the chief driver of the local weather emergency.
A spokesperson at ADNOC informed CNBC by way of e mail: “The evaluation of, and assumptions made, concerning ADNOC’s capital expenditure program past the corporate’s present five-year marketing strategy (2023 to 2027) are speculative and subsequently incorrect.”
The Abu Dhabi power group introduced in January this yr that it might allocate $15 billion for funding in “low-carbon options” by 2030, together with investments in clear energy, carbon seize and storage and electrification tasks.
Excessive-rise tower buildings alongside the central Sheikh Zayed Highway in Dubai on July 3, 2023.
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World Witness arrived at its projections by analyzing ADNOC’s forecasted oil and gasoline capital expenditure, exploratory capital expenditure and operational expenditure for the interval from 2023 to 2050. The information was sourced from Rystad Power’s UCube database.
Rystad’s information will not be out there to the general public, however is extensively used and referenced by main oil and gasoline corporations and worldwide our bodies.
“Fossil fuels corporations prefer to burnish their inexperienced credentials, but they not often say the quiet half out loud: that they proceed to throw eyewatering quantities on the standard polluting oil and gasoline that’s accelerating the local weather disaster,” mentioned Patrick Galey, senior investigator at World Witness.
“How [al-Jaber] can count on to lecture different nations on the necessity to decarbonise and be taken critically is anybody’s guess, whereas he continues to supply vastly extra funding to grease and gasoline than to renewable options,” he added.
“He’s a fossil gas boss, plain and easy, saying one factor whereas his firm does the opposite,” Galey mentioned.
The United Nations Framework Conference on Local weather Change didn’t instantly reply to a request for touch upon the evaluation carried out by World Witness. The Convention of the Events (COP) is the supreme decision-making physique of the UNFCCC.
Foremost precedence for COP28
Al-Jaber was the founding CEO of Abu Dhabi state-owned renewable power agency Masdar, which works in additional than 40 international locations worldwide and has invested in or dedicated to spend money on renewable power tasks with a complete worth of over $30 billion.
Talking earlier this yr, al-Jaber mentioned the primary precedence for the COP28 summit can be to maintain alive the combat to restrict international heating to 1.5 levels Celsius.
The Paris Settlement goals to restrict the rise within the international common temperature to “properly under” 2 levels Celsius above pre-industrial ranges and to pursue efforts to restrict international heating to 1.5 levels Celsius. Past the vital temperature threshold of 1.5 levels Celsius, it turns into extra doubtless that small adjustments can set off dramatic shifts in Earth’s whole life assist system.
The Worldwide Power Company says no new oil, gasoline or coal improvement is suitable with the objective of curbing international heating to 1.5 levels Celsius.
In response to a request for remark from CNBC, an ADNOC spokesperson mentioned that power demand is growing because the world’s inhabitants is increasing. “All the present power transition situations, together with by the IEA, present that some degree of oil and gasoline can be wanted into the longer term,” the spokesperson mentioned.
“As such, it will be significant that, along with accelerating investments in renewables and decrease carbon power options, we contemplate the least carbon intensive sources of oil and gasoline and additional scale back their depth to allow a good, equitable, orderly, and accountable power transition. That is the strategy ADNOC is taking,” they added.
The spokesperson mentioned its 2022 upstream emissions information confirmed the power group as one of many least carbon-intensive producers worldwide. The corporate will search to additional scale back its carbon depth by 25% and goal close to zero methane emissions by 2030, they added.
“As we scale back our emissions, we’re additionally ramping up investments in renewables and 0 carbon energies like hydrogen for our prospects,” the spokesperson mentioned.
A separate report printed in April final yr by World Witness and Oil Change Worldwide discovered that 20 of the world’s greatest oil and gasoline corporations have been projected to spend $932 billion by the tip of the last decade to develop new oil and gasoline fields.
At the moment, Russian state firm Gazprom was estimated to spend probably the most on fossil gas improvement and exploration tasks by way of to 2030 ($139 billion), adopted by U.S. oil majors ExxonMobil ($84 billion) and Chevron ($67 billion).