ANKARA, Turkey — After securing a powerful new mandate in a runoff presidential election, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan might mood some positions which have irritated his NATO allies. However observers predicted that the nation’s longtime strongman chief is unlikely to depart from his coverage of partaking with each Russia and the West.
Erdogan gained reelection Sunday with greater than 52% of the vote, extending his more and more authoritarian rule into a 3rd decade. He should now confront skyrocketing inflation that has fueled a cost-of-living disaster and rebuild within the aftermath of a devastating earthquake that killed greater than 50,000 individuals and leveled total cities.
After failing to safe victory outright within the first spherical of voting on Could 14, Erdogan defeated opposition challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who had promised to place Turkey on a extra democratic path and enhance relations with the West.
A divisive populist and masterful orator who remodeled Turkey’s presidency from a largely ceremonial function to a strong workplace, Erdogan gained partially because of the backing of conservative voters. They continue to be dedicated to him for lifting Islam’s profile in Turkey, which was based on secular rules, and elevating the nation’s affect in worldwide politics whereas charting an impartial course.
Within the runup to the election, Erdogan held off approving Sweden’s entry into the NATO alliance — a part of a Western effort to isolate Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine. Erdogan accused Sweden of being too gentle on teams Ankara considers to be terrorists, and a sequence of Quran-burning protests in Stockholm angered his spiritual help base — making his robust stance much more fashionable.
Together with his speedy political future now safe, Erdogan could also be prepared to carry his objection to Sweden’s membership, which have to be unanimously authorized. Turkey and Hungary are the one two nations within the alliance that haven’t ratified the bid.
“Turkey will probably sign it’s open to some type of rapprochement, resembling by encouraging parliament’s ratification of Sweden’s accession to NATO,” mentioned Jay Truesdale, who heads the geopolitical danger consultancy, Veracity Worldwide.
However that doesn’t imply Erdogan plans to desert his relationship with Russia, on which Turkey depends on for vitality and tourism income.
“Erdogan has efficiently maintained a multi-vector international coverage, which has enabled him to have constructive relations with Russia, China, and nations all through the Center East, even when this has been to the detriment of Turkey’s alliances with the West,” mentioned Truesdale.
That has typically put Turkey on the heart of main worldwide conflicts and debates: serving to to barter a deal to restart Ukrainian grain exports and avert international meals shortages, intervening militarily in Syria’s civil battle, partaking in controversial fuel exploration within the Mediterranean, internet hosting thousands and thousands of Syrians fleeing violence after which typically utilizing these refugees as leverage in negotiations together with his European neighbors.
In a mirrored image of his international ambitions, Erdogan declared in his victory speech Sunday that, with the nation marking its centennial this yr, the world would see a “Turkish century.”
Erdogan’s tendency to play either side — resembling buying Russian-made army tools and refusing to implement sanctions towards Moscow whereas additionally offering drones for Ukraine — has typically irked his allies.
Nevertheless it additionally typically makes him indispensable, as evidenced by the Western leaders who rushed to congratulate him, whilst they continue to be involved about his more and more authoritarian flip — together with crackdowns on free speech and rhetoric concentrating on the LGBTQ group.
U.S. President Joe Biden mentioned in a message posted on Twitter, that he seemed “ahead to persevering with to work collectively as NATO Allies on bilateral points and shared international challenges.”
Later, Biden mentioned he’d known as Erdogan to congratulate him. He mentioned the 2 mentioned Sweden’s NATO membership and Turkey’s want to purchase new American-made F-16s.
Washington eliminated Turkey from the U.S.-led F-35 fighter jet program after Erdogan’s authorities bought Russia’s S-400 air protection system. Turkey is now in search of to buy F-16 fighter jets.
French President Emmanuel Macron, in the meantime, mentioned his nation and Turkey “have big challenges to face collectively,” together with a return to peace in Europe. “With President Erdogan … we’ll proceed to maneuver ahead.”
And in an indication that he’s additionally vital to the West’s adversary, Russian President Vladimir Putin attributed Erdogan’s victory to his “impartial international coverage.”
These insurance policies helped Erdogan keep his reputation regardless of vital challenges at residence, together with an economic system battered by excessive inflation and a devastating earthquake that led to criticism of his authorities. The Turkish lira plunged towards the greenback Monday, although shares rallied.
“Who else have been we going to vote for however the man who introduced our nation thus far?” Hacer Yalcin requested throughout post-election celebrations. “He ready every thing, piled all of it within the center, and now another person goes to return and eat it?”
Erdogan is prone to press forward with latest efforts to normalize relationships with nations of the Center East after fallouts with a number of regional powers, together with Israel, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
Erdogan acknowledged in a latest tv interview that sure Gulf States, that he didn’t identify had given Turkey monetary help that helped prop up the nation’s economic system.
Beneath intense home strain to evict thousands and thousands of Syrian refugees, Erdogan has additionally been attempting to fix fences with Syrian President Bashar Assad — after years of backing opposition fighters in search of to depose him.
Erdogan’s authorities hopes that rapprochement with Assad can result in the secure repatriation of the refugees. Damascus, nonetheless, has mentioned Turkey must withdraw from areas in northern Syria that it controls.
Whereas the U.S. and Europe are prone to search Turkey’s help on some points, like Sweden’s membership in NATO, observers mentioned the connection shall be stay tough in different areas, resembling Turkey’s accession to the European Union. These talks are stalled over democratic backsliding underneath Erdogan and are unlikely to be revived.
“One other 5 years of Erdogan means extra of the geopolitical balancing act between Russia and the West,” wrote Galip Dalay, affiliate fellow at Chatham Home in London. “Turkey and the West will have interaction in transactional cooperation wherever (Turkey’s) pursuits dictate it — and it’ll compartmentalize its relationship.”
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Bilginsoy reported from Istanbul. Cinar Kiper in Bodrum, Turkey, contributed to this report.